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Solar 2006 Climate Summary Targets Coal
September 6, 2006
Global warming changes the agenda for the power industry. In his
presentation to the Solar 2006 conference, NASA climate researcher
Jim Hansen told us that levels of carbon in the atmosphere are
higher than they have been in almost 1 million years. If the
conventional energy industry continues with business as usual ─
increasing carbon emissions at 2% per year ─ airborne levels of
carbon dioxide will double again by the end of the 21st century.
Average global temperatures will rise 3 C (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit),
and sea levels would rise as much as 20 to 60 meters from ice sheets
melting over Antarctica and Greenland.
See a list of Hansen presentations on his page on the
Columbia University website at:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1
Hansen presented a pathway to change, which largely
focuses on replacing coal-fired power generation with renewable
energy early in the 21st century. This focus on coal is because
world production of petroleum and natural gas production will likely
peak in a few years, after which production will steadily decrease
for many decades. Resource limits will cap emissions from coal and
gas. However, known reserves of coal are much larger and more
widespread. The effect on the planet from using coal will many times
larger than using oil and natural gas.
China and the United States are the big players for
carbon emissions and coal-fired power generation. Both countries
refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol to limit emissions of greenhouse
gases. Both countries subsidize their coal industries (as do all of
the world's coal producers), and both are on a spree of building
coal-fired electric power plants.
China is commissioning a new coal-fired power station
almost every week. These plants use conventional boilers and have
low energy efficiencies and very high emissions. (China does not
require its coal generators to use scrubbers, which means they have
become one of the top sources of air pollution in the world. Chinese
political leaders say reducing pollution would hurt their economy.)
The country is on track to build 350 coal-fired power plants this
decade. China obtains 55% of its total energy from coal, and
generates 80% of its electricity from coal, about the same
percentage as Colorado.
In the United States, the U.S. Department of Energy
(DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) reports that
there are 130 coal-fired power plants in various stages of
construction or permitting. See the NETL August 2 press release with
a link to its coal power database:
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/press/2006/06046-Coal-Fired_Power_Plants_Database.html
Hansen presented the world's choices in clear terms.
If global temperatures are to be stabilized, carbon emissions must
decline, not increase. Coal will become the focus of carbon
reduction. Although the new coal-fired power plants in China and the
United States are capable of operating for perhaps a century, Hansen
maintains the world must come to an agreement some time in the next
decade or so to stop building conventional coal power plants and
then retire many of them from service. See the summary of his Solar
2006 presentation on the CRES website at:
http://cres-energy.org/newhtml/conference/ |
